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Industri Pengolahan Topang Pertumbuhan Ekonomi Nasional

JAKARTA |CBNPost – Industri pengolahan, pedagang besar dan eceran, serta informasi dan komunikasi menjadi penopang pertumbuhan ekonomi nasional. Hal itu terungkap dalam laporan bersama Komote Stabilitas Sistem Keuangan (KSSK) yang dirilis baru-baru ini.

KSSK terdiri dari Menteri Keuangan, Gubernur Bank Indonesia, Ketua Dewan Komisioner Otoritas Jasa Keuangan (OJK), dan Ketua Dewan Komisioner Lembaga Penjamin Simpanan (LPS).

Laporan tersebut menyebutkan, secara spasial, pertumbuhan ekonomi terutama ditopang oleh pertumbuhan wilayah Kalimantan dan Jawa yang masih kuat sejalan dengan terjaganya permintaan domestik. Dengan perkembangan tersebut, pertumbuhan ekonomi 2023 diprakirakan dapat mencapai kisaran 5,0-5,3%.

Pertumbuhan ekonomi Indonesia tetap baik didukung permintaan domestik. Perekonomian triwulan II 2023 diprakirakan masih tumbuh kuat, ditopang oleh peningkatan konsumsi rumah tangga dan tren ekspansif aktivitas manufaktur sebagaimana ditunjukkan oleh PMI Manufaktur yang meningkat ke level 53,3 pada Juli 2023, lebih tinggi dibandingkan Juni 2023 sebesar 52,5.

Konsumsi rumah tangga meningkat didorong oleh terus naiknya mobilitas, membaiknya ekspektasi pendapatan, dan terkendalinya inflasi, serta dampak positif dari Hari Besar Keagamaan Nasional (HBKN) dan pemberian gaji ke-13 kepada Aparatur Sipil Negara.

Perkembangan tersebut juga disertai Indeks Keyakinan Konsumen dan Indeks Penjualan Ritel yang masih terus bertumbuh. Meskipun investasi bangunan masih relatif tertahan, namun investasi nonbangunan masih terindikasi ekspansif. Hal ini sejalan dengan kinerja ekspor yang positif dan berlanjutnya hilirisasi.

Masih dalam laporan yang sama, disebutkan bahwa inflasi kembali ke dalam sasaran lebih cepat dari prakiraan. Inflasi Indeks Harga Konsumen (IHK) turun dari 4,97% yoy pada triwulan I 2023 menjadi 3,52% yoy pada triwulan II 2023, kembali berada dalam sasaran 3,0±1%. Inflasi inti terus melambat menjadi 2,58% yoy, dipengaruhi oleh stabilnya nilai tukar, turunnya harga komoditas global, rendahnya dampak lanjutan dari inflasi volatile food, dan terkendalinya ekspektasi inflasi.

Selain itu, inflasi kelompok administered prices menurun menjadi 9,21% yoy seiring dengan pengelolaan harga energi domestik yang baik. Tren moderasi inflasi tersebut berlanjut memasuki bulan Juli 2023 dengan inflasi IHK yang turun ke level 3,08% yoy, inflasi inti yang turun ke level 2,43% yoy, dan inflasi administered prices turun ke level 8,42% yoy.

Berbagai kebijakan, di antaranya intervensi harga dan stabilitasi pasokan, dukungan Pemerintah dalam bentuk bantuan pangan, upaya fasilitasi dan pengawasan distribusi, serta penguatan Gerakan Nasional Pengendalian Inflasi Pangan (GNPIP) di berbagai daerah mampu mendorong tingkat inflasi volatile food mengalami deflasi 0,03% yoy.

Kembalinya pergerakan inflasi ke dalam sasaran sebagai hasil positif dari konsistensi bauran kebijakan fiskal sebagai shock absorber dan kebijakan moneter, serta eratnya sinergi pengendalian inflasi pangan antara BI dan Pemerintah (Pusat dan Daerah) dalam Tim Pengendalian Inflasi Pusat dan Daerah (TPIP dan TPID). Dengan perkembangan tersebut, inflasi diprakirakan dapat tetap terkendali dalam kisaran 3,0±1% pada sisa tahun 2023 dan 2,5±1% pada 2024.[]

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